8/31/14

Ebola - Getting Better or Worse??

As we head into September, the wrath of Ebola continues to devastate West Africa. Now over five months since this deadly virus infected its first victim, one wonders where we are in terms of combating the disease. Are infection rates beginning to plateau or are they continuing to rise? And if they are rising, how quickly? This week I decided to answer this question by plotting WHO Ebola data dating back to late March, when the virus first popped up in Guinea. What I found was startling. Not only are infection rates continuing to rise, but they are rising near exponentially. As are the death rates. These exponential curves are depicted in the graph below, with total cases depicted in blue and total deaths depicted in red. Using the equations of the respective lines, I also predicted the total cases and deaths each week through the end of September, depicted as light green points.


At present, the cumulative death toll from Ebola in West Africa stands at 1,552 people, with 3,069 cases. It has become pointless to compare these numbers to anything previously seen from Ebola as this outbreak is so far off the charts. What’s more, it is thought that these numbers are underreported as many patients are dying before ever reaching hospitals, or are refusing to visit doctors due to harsh quarantine measures and stigma. According to my graph above, if this current rate of infection continues, the death toll will reach 2,250 by mid-September, infecting nearly 4,200 people. By the first of October, the death toll will increase further to 3,200, with over 6,100 cases! One can only hope that this trend deviates from its exponential trajectory sooner rather than later.
As of August 26, the Democratic Republic of Congo confirmed an outbreak of Ebola. At the moment, however, this is not believed to share any connection with the outbreak taking place in West Africa. I will keep you posted. In the U.S., there have fortunately been no confirmed Ebola cases, besides the two American healthcare workers who were transported to the U.S. from Africa. Both of these patients, though, have made successful recoveries and no longer carry the virus.



If you enjoyed this article, I encourage you to join my blog!  Simply click the “join this site” button at the top right of the page, log in using your Yahoo, Google, or Twitter account, and click “follow publicly.”  Thanks!! 
                                                                                                  -Shahir Masri, MS

3 comments:

  1. Who would have ever believe that herbs can cure four years HERPES in my body, i never believe that this will work i have spend a lot when getting drugs from the hospital to keep me healthy, what i was waiting for is death because i never believed that i will ever get cured,but this faithful day i came across a testimony on the internet of a lady on a forum who said she live in Florida testifying about a man called Dr.OBUDU who cured her from HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS, i decided to email him, unknowingly to me that this will be the end of the HERPES in my body, he prepare the herb for me, and give me instruction on how to take it and after that, he told me to go to the hospital for a check up, and i did exactly what he instructed, surprisingly after the test the doctor confirm me negative, i thought it was a joke, i went to other hospital to do another test and it was also negative, then i took my friend who was also HERPES positive to the Dr, after the treatment she was also confirm negative . He also have the herb to cure cancer please i want every one with this virus to be free, that is why am dropping his email address, OBUDU.MIRACLEHERBALHOME@GMAIL.COM his contact number (+2347035974895) thank you once again Dr.OBUDU for saving my life, and I promise I will always testify for your good work . EMAIL: OBUDU.MIRACLEHERBALHOME@GMAIL.COM

    ReplyDelete
  2. The greatest Joy in my life today is that i have been cured of HIV/AIDS by a Doctor called Dr. OBUDO,
    Dr. OBUDO help me in my life. I was infected with HIV/AIDS DISEASE in 2012, i went to many hospitals for cure but there was no solution, so I was thinking how can I get a solution,so that my body can be okay.until this faithful day as i was browsing the net I saw a testimony on how Dr.OBUDO helped people in curing HIV disease, quickly I copied his WhatsApp number so i contacted him for solution for my HIV DISEASE,so Dr. OBUDU told me that his going to prepare herbal medicine for my health,then he prepared the medicine and luckily after 2week my HIV was cured. Dr.OBUDO is well recognize as one of the best herbalist doctor in Africa, you don't have to be sad anymore or share your tears anymore on this disease when the cure have already be found by Dr. OBUDO herbal medicine,he also cure HPV,CANCER,HERPES,ALS,HEPATITIS B, DIABETES, ASTHMA,contact him on his email (OBUDO.MIRACLEHERBALHOME@GMAIL.COM) or contact him on WhatsApp via number:+2347035974895

    ReplyDelete